Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$19.1K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 2 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 74 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (17 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 2 May 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 36.5% on 30 Apr 2026. $19.06K traded over the market's life.

55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 6:54 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 2 Apr 2026 – 1 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Apr 2026	14.5%
1 Jul 2026	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Xendo1	Yes	824.81
dzmontana	Yes	333.33
Ttt1	Yes	162.86

10 of 55 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.