Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% or more in August?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$164.6K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 83%. Yes opened at 26% on 13 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2025 to 11 Sep 2025, the highest close was 26% on 13 Aug 2025 and the lowest 12% on 17 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 15.5% on 14 Aug 2025. $164.61K traded over the market's life.

44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 12, 4:36 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 13 Aug 2025 – 11 Sep 2025, chart shows 5%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
13 Aug 2025	26.0%
11 Sep 2025	17.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	101.94K
cowcat	Yes	12K
back-in-whack	Yes	7.12K
lllllleaf	Yes	5.89K

10 of 44 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending August 2025 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by over the 12 month period ending in August 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2025, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.