Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 22 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 18 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 22 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 18 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 4.5% on 23 Jul 2026. $976.74 traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 19, 1:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 18 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 49.5% |
| 18 Aug 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.59K |
| Offbeat-Injoke | Yes | 500 |
| balthazar | Yes | 242.12 |
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/likud-party-primary-winner-20260720203933764
| Yes |
| 150 |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 133.55 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 118.08 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 99.99 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 79 |
| Tiny-Combat | Yes | 25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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