Analytics
Yes is at 10%, down 4.5 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 25 Feb 2026.
Across the 225 daily closes on record from 25 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.5% on 13 May 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 39.5% on 13 May 2026.
$882.77 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $26.08K since listing. The order book holds $5.29K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 282 trades, $1.24K bought Yes and $3.94K bought No.
The largest Yes position is wonderdog with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is GTOrski1 with 841. Ten wallets hold 79% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 225 points, 25 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2026 | 14.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wonderdog | Yes | 1.13K |
| GTOrski1 | No | 841.4 |
| rocky42006 | Yes | 826.2 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any court in the United States issues a ruling that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of votes occurred in at least one US state during the 2020 United States Presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ruling is defined as any written order, judgement, opinion, or decision, including per curiam opinions, summary orders and sua sponte rulings issued by a relevant court. Unwritten oral rulings, tentative rulings, settlements, orders to show cause, or other procedures which do not constitute a finalized ruling will not count. A qualifying ruling of fraud must find that widespread, intentional voter fraud or vote-manipulation occured during the 2020 United States Presidential election. Procedural irregularities, administrative errors, or isolated rulings on individual cases of voter fraud will not count. The primary resolution source will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-us-court-rule-that-the-2020-election-was-fradulent
| RationalCoco |
| No |
| 783.06 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 600 |
| LLouhis | Yes | 454.07 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | No | 297.27 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 254.69 |
| bullishkhandle | Yes | 236.04 |
| mwenya | No | 206.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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