Analytics
Yes is at 57%, up 4 points from 53% when the market opened on 30 Sep 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 24.7% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 29.3%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 48.8% on 20 Oct 2026.
$4.57K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $143.52, with a 33.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 87 trades, $48.3 bought Yes and $858.73 bought No.
The largest Yes position is TheMasterMind with 200 shares; the largest No position is KnowsAllOfIt with 237. Ten wallets hold 95.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 53.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 57.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KnowsAllOfIt | No | 237.3 |
| TheMasterMind | Yes | 200 |
| sasha585 | No | 152.47 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a transfer restriction imposed on Manchester City FC as a result of the Premier League's proceedings against Manchester City FC concerning alleged breaches of the Premier League's financial rules takes effect at or before the official opening of the Premier League's 2027 summer transfer window. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A transfer restriction is any sanction that bans or limits the club's ability to sign or register new players in one or more transfer windows, including registration embargoes and club-specific limits on transfer spending. A restriction will count only once it is in force against the club. A restriction that has been imposed but is suspended, stayed pending appeal, or scheduled to take effect after the opening of the 2027 summer transfer window will not count. Financial penalties alone will not count. If the 2027 summer transfer window has not opened by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on whether a transfer restriction has taken effect by that time. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Premier League, the independent Regulatory Commission, the Appeal Board, or Manchester City FC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-transfer-restriction-on-manchester-city-be-applied-by-the-2027-summer-transfer-window
| GuyFromTinder |
| Yes |
| 118.74 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 109.41 |
| Tallguy2527 | No | 100 |
| Helior1993 | Yes | 88.1 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 77.1 |
| Livid-Television | Yes | 50 |
| Bountiful-Disposer | Yes | 41.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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