Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 30 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 248 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 33% on 16 May 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 25% on 28 Jun 2025. $188.52K traded over the market's life.
63 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 248 points, 30 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2025 | 13.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| reidja | Yes | 3.02K |
| Dcsuhany | Yes | 1.62K |
| lissartter | Yes | 592.94 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-province-schedule-a-referendum-to-leave-canada-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 467 |
| maximk2 | Yes | 202.6 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 182 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 154 |
| Gamimachos | Yes | 148.15 |
| topl | Yes | 129.99 |
| VictoryGod | Yes | 111.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
