Analytics
Yes is at 18.5%, down 22 points from 41% when the market opened on 6 Jan 2026.
Across the 285 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 6 Jan 2026 and the lowest 6% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12%; a month before, 11%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 18.5% on 11 May 2026.
$4.32K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $184.41, with a 25.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 80 trades, $135.66 bought Yes and $1.56K bought No.
The largest Yes position is PaddyAlpha with 231 shares; the largest No position is cryptoincome with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 91.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 285 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 41.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cryptoincome | No | 1.16K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 230.52 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 210.37 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any token launched in 2026 ends the year with an FDV above $20B. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” A token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The token price used will be the “Close” price on CoinGecko for December 31, 2026, as shown in the token’s historical data (e.g., Hyperliquid: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid/historical_data). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-coin-launched-in-2026-end-the-year-above-20b-fdv-398
| graysonmiawalker |
| Yes |
| 204.59 |
| Wojtek | Yes | 201 |
| lucasadonisryan | Yes | 200 |
| apiwat | No | 86.5 |
| aladdinbx | Yes | 84.32 |
| saber99 | Yes | 50 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 41.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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