Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 4 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 183 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 22.5% on 4 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 15.5% on 5 Jul 2025. $268.21K traded over the market's life.
171 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 183 points, 4 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | 22.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chosen17 | Yes | 4.51K |
| ruslan01 | Yes | 2.87K |
| TonerCartridge | Yes | 771.79 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-ai-model-become-1-in-2025
| trk34 | Yes | 700 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | Yes | 697.62 |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 685.52 |
| rbbor993 | Yes | 673.33 |
| Cathiecould | Yes | 636.77 |
| ronald123 | Yes | 559.29 |
| jamesbond7 | Yes | 544.62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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