Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 35% on 31 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 185 daily closes on record from 31 May 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 35% on 31 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 21% on 1 Jun 2025. $188.26K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 1, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 185 points, 31 May 2025 – 1 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 May 2025 | 35.0% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sirdenal | Yes | 2.86K |
| Nancy-Pelosi | Yes | 2K |
| thomas111 | Yes | 1.03K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall in the contiguous United States as a Category 5 hurricane between June 1 and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If any hurricane makes multiple landfalls in the contiguous United States, each landfall will be considered for the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC for whether a system has made landfall in the contiguous United States at a strength of category 5, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-cat-5-hurricane-make-us-landfall-during-hurricane-season-2025
| Rinchon | Yes | 931.82 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 765 |
| tailevent | Yes | 599.99 |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 500 |
| spacerr | Yes | 291.46 |
| Esalon | Yes | 266.45 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 251 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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