Will a candidate win outright in Ireland’s first round?

The 2025 Irish presidential election is scheduled for October 24, 2025. The President of Ireland is elected via an instant-runoff voting (single transferable vote) system; if no candidate receives a majority of first-preference votes, then further counts and transfers take place. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election on the first count, i.e., obtains an outright majority of first-preference votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first count of this election isn’t known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Irish returning authority (the relevant official electoral body for Ireland).