Analytics
Resolved Yes on 26 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 80% on 25 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 25 Oct 2025 to 26 Oct 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 26 Oct 2025 and the lowest 80% on 25 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 99.9% on 26 Oct 2025. $31.16K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 25 Oct 2025 – 26 Oct 2025, chart shows 75%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Oct 2025 | 80.0% |
| 26 Oct 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| coinfun | No | 4.88K |
| pillusch | No | 2K |
| Supercastor | No | 1K |
| danielillo0077 | No | 145 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The 2025 Irish presidential election is scheduled for October 24, 2025. The President of Ireland is elected via an instant-runoff voting (single transferable vote) system; if no candidate receives a majority of first-preference votes, then further counts and transfers take place. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election on the first count, i.e., obtains an outright majority of first-preference votes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first count of this election isn’t known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Irish returning authority (the relevant official electoral body for Ireland).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-candidate-win-outright-in-irelands-first-round
| 0xmogged | No | 100 |
| RepublicOfChina | No | 100 |
| NigelFarage | No | 90 |
| Sphero | No | 83.33 |
| leajun | No | 40 |
| truongvanhung | No | 26.25 |
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