Analytics
Yes is at 0.9%, down 35 points from 35.5% when the market opened on 13 Dec 2025.
Across the 313 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 29 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39% on 17 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 22 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.1%; a month before, 2.7%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 21% on 24 Feb 2026.
7-8 ranks third of the 8 outcomes in “How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?”. <5 leads at 54%; 5-6 is at 35%.
$164.74K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.06K, with a 1.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $513.99 bought Yes and $12.27K bought No; the largest was a $1.15K buy of No at 85.0¢.
The largest Yes position is LornaPredicts with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 6.5K. Ten wallets hold 71.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 313 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 35.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 6.54K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.2K |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 536.08 |
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026
| 1walrus | Yes | 500 |
| Joe-Biden | Yes | 385.41 |
| Silver Atlas DDDA | Yes | 343.05 |
| rplc-ftbl | Yes | 305.4 |
| 6835437133 | Yes | 287.47 |
| detonium | Yes | 266.66 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 254.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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