Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 21 points from 23.5% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 6 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 30 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 2.5% on 24 Oct 2026.
40+ ranks fifth of the 6 outcomes in “How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?”. 20-24 leads at 41.5%; 25-29 is at 26%.
$100.99 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $889.51 since listing. The order book holds $10.76K, with a 3.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 28 trades, $29.59 bought Yes and $497.2 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 259 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 481. Ten wallets hold 93.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 480.54 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 259.35 |
| rabbit007 | No | 249.86 |
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-october-26
| shiifoo | Yes | 166 |
| vozomnil | Yes | 84.21 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 54.5 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 48.21 |
| Ludwig14 | Yes | 30.59 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 26 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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