Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 30 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 351 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2023 to 14 Dec 2024, the highest close was 75% on 12 Jan 2024 and the lowest 1.5% on 14 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 48 points down, to 1.5% on 14 Dec 2024. $17.71K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 15, 12:57 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 351 points, 30 Dec 2023 – 14 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2023 | 47.5% |
| 14 Dec 2024 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 3o93xjk43po33s | Yes | 515.74 |
| Kermitbets | Yes | 18.32 |
| HilarionGougnaf | Yes | 9.8 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ipsos Consumer Tracker's "Me Personally" measure on the "It was a (comparatively) really good year" chart for 2024 (ex: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/americans-say-2023-was-good-year-and-think-2024-will-be-even-better) indicates that 2024 was a better year than 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The yearly results for the Ipsos Consumer Tracker are usually published early in December of a given year. If Ipsos announces they will cease to release consumer tracker information, otherwise shuts down, or if the Consumer Tracker information for 2024 is not made available by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the Ipsos Consumer Tracker.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-2024-be-better-than-2023
| phh-951 | Yes | 9.57 |
| 3Dcut | Yes | 6.35 |
| Max-12345 | Yes | 5 |
| sepposlayer666 | Yes | 2.22 |
| MarketMogul | No | 1.25 |
| SPIRaLAurORAe | Yes | 0.82 |
| Stained-Baritone | Yes | 0.54 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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