Analytics
Trading ended on 26 Oct 2026 with Yes at 99.3%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.3% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 23.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 35%. Its largest one-day move was 76 points up, to 99.3% on 28 Oct 2026.
190-209 is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?”, ahead of <170 at 1.7%.
$4.18K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is johnpudricion with 300 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 736. Ten wallets hold 84.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 10:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 14 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 29.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 99.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 735.82 |
| johnpudricion | Yes | 300 |
| Violet Voyager 6798 | Yes | 289.36 |
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-october-19
| 09F911029D74 | No | 200 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 180.36 |
| fresh | Yes | 131.36 |
| Bright Sphinx 1B73 | Yes | 92.71 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 89.35 |
| LineEditor | Yes | 68.01 |
| usernameisrandomorlong | Yes | 61.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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