Analytics
Resolved No on 8 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 40% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 8 May 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41.5% on 31 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 0.6% on 8 May 2026. $9.29K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 9, 5:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 8 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 40.0% |
| 8 May 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 966.75 |
| Royal Raven DCA9 | Yes | 263.63 |
| megadarkparticle | Yes | 255 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-tornadoes-in-the-us-in-april-522
| Yes |
| 131.59 |
| Scornful-Conductor | Yes | 72 |
| Happyup | Yes | 70 |
| Focused-Intestine | Yes | 62.56 |
| Colala | Yes | 60 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 20 |
| kpax91 | Yes | 10 |
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