Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 10, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$48.2K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 10, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 9 Apr 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42.5% on 27 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Apr 2026. $48.21K traded over the market's life.

37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 11, 5:22 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 9 Apr 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Feb 2026	42.5%
9 Apr 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	11.49K
Indigo Tide 215D	Yes	2.44K
neutralwave23	Yes	1.72K

10 of 37 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on April 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.