Analytics
Yes is at 35.5%, up 8 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 30 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 37%; a month before, 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 32% on 2 Oct 2026.
1 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “How many Independents will be elected to Congress?”. 0 leads at 51.5%; 2 is at 8.5%.
$198.74 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.52K since listing. The order book holds $29.11K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 113 trades, $374.37 bought Yes and $601.96 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Antony82 with 200 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 329. Ten wallets hold 93.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 3 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 27.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 35.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 329.21 |
| Antony82 | Yes | 200.39 |
| sunnynotbunny | Yes | 130 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market. In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-independents-will-be-elected-to-congress
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 76.79 |
| televisionloud | Yes | 48 |
| PPMT | No | 30.03 |
| gaaaydoggggg | No | 29.8 |
| 2B9S | No | 28.27 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 20 |
| tradeo39 | No | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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