Analytics
Resolved Trump on 11 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Trump at 90%. The Harris side opened at 44.5% on 29 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 29 Oct 2024 to 11 Nov 2024, the highest close was 76.5% on 5 Nov 2024 and the lowest 9.9% on 10 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 28.5% on 7 Nov 2024. $40.32K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 12, 5:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Harris price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 29 Oct 2024 – 11 Nov 2024
| Observed | Harris price |
|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2024 | 44.5% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | 10.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ntnt | Harris | 52.63 |
| LukvonStrom | Harris | 4.44 |
| Cooked-Merit | Harris | 3.38 |
| georg4win | Trump | 0.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market refers to the CNN release of the National Election Pool exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election conducted by Edison research. This market will resolve to “Harris” if Kamala Harris wins a greater share of voters who decided in the last month than Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election. This market will resolve to “Trump” if Donald Trump wins a greater share of voters who decided in the last month than Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election. This market will resolve to 50-50 if neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris win the plurality of voters who decided in the last month in the 2024 US presidential election. The resolution source for this market will be the CNN release of the Edison research exit poll. If CNN does not release the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll by November 10, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, the polling numbers from the CBS release of the National Election Pool will be used. If CBS also has not released the poll, alternate releases of the of the National Election Pool will be used. If the National Election Pool/Edison research exit poll for the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not conducted/released by November 20, 2024, 12:00 PM, or if the poll does not provide data on voters who decided in the last month this market will resolve to 50-50. Note: Slight changes in terminology used by the poll will not affect resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-late-deciders
| NRXO519 | Harris | 0.07 |
| giovani-aut | Harris | 0.04 |
| ycbhcxvyg18 | Harris | 0.02 |
| aaacz | Harris | 0.02 |
| tuankienn | Harris | 0.02 |
| LangdonBonaparte | Harris | 0.02 |
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