Which party wins the most primary votes in Australian election?

This market will resolve to "Labor Party" if the Australian Labor Party receives more total first-preference (primary) votes than the Liberal–National Coalition in the 2025 federal election, as reported by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC). This market will resolve to "Coalition" if the combined total of first-preference (primary) votes received by the Liberal Party and the National Party (counted together as a single group, regardless of whether they run joint or separate candidates in individual electorates) exceeds that of the Labor Party. If any other political party or alliance receives more first-preference (primary) votes than either the Labor Party or the combined Liberal–National Coalition or if the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "50-50". This market will resolve based on official first-preference national vote totals as reported by the Australian Electoral Commission (https://www.aec.gov.au/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: The Liberal and the National Parties of Australia (Liberal–National Coalition) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for Liberal–National Coalition will be assigned to the Liberal Party.

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