Analytics
Resolved Hike on 16 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Hike at 94%. The Hike side opened at 71% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 16 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 94% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 46.5% on 16 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 80% on 31 Aug 2026. $27.47K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Hike price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 16 Sep 2026
| Observed | Hike price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 71.0% |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 94.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| biter55185 | Cut | 800 |
| Whywix | Cut | 189.99 |
| neutralwave23 | Cut | 121.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-the-next-fed-rate-change-20260713235358796
| Cut |
| 97.33 |
| buschbarroooz | Cut | 95.4 |
| Dr.PNL | Cut | 94.37 |
| jackli003 | Cut | 50 |
| sirjhow01 | Cut | 50 |
| .Menthe | Cut | 50 |
| PPMT | Cut | 30 |
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