Analytics
Yes is at 3.8%, down 13 points from 17% when the market opened on 17 Jan 2026.
Across the 260 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (27 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 18% on 28 May 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%; a month before, 5.2%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 4% on 18 Jun 2026.
$44.97K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.83K, with a 2.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $650.33 bought Yes and $12.09K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Atimon8070 with 1.7K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 2.8K. Ten wallets hold 74.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 260 points, 17 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | 17.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DFK | No | 2.84K |
| Atimon8070 | Yes | 1.69K |
| GarthBroadmore | Yes | 834.84 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/von-der-leyen-out-as-european-commission-president-in-2026
| cliveqm |
| Yes |
| 815.81 |
| archaic | No | 554.28 |
| Cobalt Horizon D769 | Yes | 507.47 |
| Ajjooli | No | 490.8 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 302 |
| Krass | No | 300 |
| maximus84 | Yes | 296.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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