Analytics
Yes is at 6.1%, down 3.9 points from 10% when the market opened on 22 Apr 2026.
The high was 15.5% on 30 Jun 2026 and the low 0.3% on 18 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 6.9%; a month ago, 4.9%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 6% on 2 Jul 2026.
$669.56 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $45.31, with a 9.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 54 trades, $26.02 bought Yes and $131.29 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Rapid Beacon B5FD with 38 shares; the largest No position is Hot-Skull with 79.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 86 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 7:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 169 points · 22 Apr 2026 – 7 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 10.0% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 6.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hot-Skull | No | 79.42 |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 42.49 |
| Rapid Beacon B5FD | Yes | 38 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption. If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/vesuvius-eruption-with-1-vei-in-2026
| iwishthisworks | Yes | 35 |
| AJSV | Yes | 34.45 |
| Big-Hearted-Shaker | No | 29.94 |
| Deep-Director | Yes | 27.95 |
| tomatosauce2 | No | 25.72 |
| Mohanad62 | Yes | 13.62 |
| Worse-Scenario | No | 10.55 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
