What is the “US/Iran declare war before March?” market asking?
It asks whether the following will happen: US/Iran declare war before March? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?
At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?
It resolved No on 1 Mar 2024. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US officially declares war against Iran, or Iran officially declares war against the US by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Declarations of war must be clear, and explicit. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made from the US or Iran against the other by the specified date. Only the US and Iran themselves declaring war will suffice to resolve this market - e.g. if an Iranian militant group declared war against the US it will not count for this market.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
$54.77K
No buy at 99.9%
History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Mar 1, 12:00 AM UTC
Showing 60 of 64 loaded trade rows.Full archived tape is available through subscriber depth/API retrieval when coverage exists.
Who still holds shares in this market?
3 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.
Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?
Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Mar 2, 7:22 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.
Can I trade this market on Vultax?
No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/usiran-declare-war-before-march) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.
