- What is the “US/Iran declare war before March?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: US/Iran declare war before March? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- When does this market close?
- Trading is scheduled to close on Feb 29, 2024. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US officially declares war against Iran, or Iran officially declares war against the US by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Declarations of war must be clear, and explicit. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made from the US or Iran against the other by the specified date. Only the US and Iran themselves declaring war will suffice to resolve this market - e.g. if an Iranian militant group declared war against the US it will not count for this market.
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- 24h volume ($0) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
- Who holds the biggest positions in this market?
