Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 30 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 30 Jan 2024 to 1 Mar 2024, the highest close was 16.5% on 30 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Feb 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 3.5% on 31 Jan 2024. $61.99K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 7:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 30 Jan 2024 – 1 Mar 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2024 | 16.5% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US officially declares war against Iran, or Iran officially declares war against the US by February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Declarations of war must be clear, and explicit. The market will resolve to "No" if no such official declaration of war is made from the US or Iran against the other by the specified date. Only the US and Iran themselves declaring war will suffice to resolve this market - e.g. if an Iranian militant group declared war against the US it will not count for this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/usiran-declare-war-before-march
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