Analytics
“US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “US x Iran ceasefire by...?”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Mar 10, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 13 hourly price points from Mar 1, 2026 to Mar 14, 2026 (Yes between 1.3% and 50.5%); 565 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 63.5% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 395 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-march-15
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wan123 | Yes | 430.22K |
| cynical.reason | Yes | 146.38K |
| AllByMyseIf | Yes | 109.2K |
| Vibrant-Login | Yes | 52.51K |
| Able-Cormorant | Yes | 40K |
| 666himself1 | Yes | 29.5K |
| Ryanphua | Yes | 25.33K |
| MossadAgent99 | Yes | 24.85K |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | Yes | 20.43K |
| rudgtew | Yes | 19.23K |