Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 5 points from 7.5% when the market opened on 15 Jan 2026.
Across the 283 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 14.5% on 19 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.1% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 3%.
$219.42K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $43.74K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $31.91 bought Yes and $2.99K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Threadbare-Signal with 6.3K shares; the largest No position is Avamax with 4.9K. Ten wallets hold 51.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 283 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 7.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 6.3K |
| coali10 | Yes | 6.16K |
| Avamax | No | 4.93K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-military-clash-before-2027
| Scoofy-Bubik |
| No |
| 3K |
| pretzel | Yes | 2.94K |
| Rtrtrtrt | No | 2.89K |
| emiliaa | Yes | 2.84K |
| llh | No | 2.38K |
| 0xrc | No | 2.03K |
| Agonizing-Takeout | Yes | 1.49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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