Analytics
Yes is at 0.6%, down 48 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 26 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.4%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 21% on 6 Oct 2026.
20 - 34 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “US Tornadoes in October 2026”. 35 - 59 leads at 97.5%; 60 - 89 is at 0.5%.
$618.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $5.68K since listing. The order book holds $1.15K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 110 trades, $197.91 bought Yes and $2.27K bought No.
The largest Yes position is jikolep with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.5K. Ten wallets hold 90.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 11 Nov 2026, 12 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.52K |
| jikolep | Yes | 1.88K |
| BeefSlayer | No | 615.34 |
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on November 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-tornadoes-in-october-2026-20260925t160000000z
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 480.7 |
| JB-bet | No | 394.38 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 169.01 |
| balthazar | Yes | 139.99 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 116.55 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 100.6 |
| sunnynotbunny | Yes | 90.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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