Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 0.8% on 2 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2025 to 4 Oct 2025, the highest close was 0.8% on 2 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Oct 2025. $96.05K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 12:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 2 Oct 2025 – 4 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2025 | 0.8% |
| 4 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Divina-Intuitio | Yes | 7.64K |
| Mehhh | Yes | 3.79K |
| mysticmac | Yes | 1K |
| muxe | Yes | 714.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between September 30, 7:30 PM ET, and October 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by-october-3
| Immortalllll | Yes | 300 |
| TonyManerao | Yes | 200 |
| xiaoxiao2 | Yes | 168.87 |
| Knobby-Effector | Yes | 125 |
| kiyouka | Yes | 122.22 |
| yushuzi | Yes | 120 |
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