Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 22% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 27 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 22% on 27 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 10% on 29 Dec 2025. $127.93K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 15, 11:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 22.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 1K |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 425 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 318 |
| kamarat | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Nigerian soil or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Nigerian ground territory or any official Nigerian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Nigerian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Nigerian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-nigeria-by
| Cobalt Scout 98FE | Yes | 292.01 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 226 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 207 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 147 |
| WannaBetNot3000 | Yes | 116.51 |
| Melodic-Breakfast | Yes | 71.43 |
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