Analytics
Yes is at 29.5%, down 1.5 points from 31% when the market opened on 27 Oct 2026.
Across the 2 daily closes on record from 27 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026, the highest close was 31% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 22% on 28 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 22% on 28 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea by...?”.
$219.89 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $597.59 since listing. The order book holds $21.03K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 100 shares; the largest No position is Eia with 140.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 27 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 22.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Eia | No | 140 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 99.89 |
| Get10 | Yes | 77.69 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-before-2027
| Kwon123 |
| No |
| 60 |
| oleg12345 | Yes | 20 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 20 |
| Malganis | No | 20 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 2.41 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
