Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 1 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2024 to 6 Aug 2024, the highest close was 4.3% on 3 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.9% on 6 Aug 2024. $117.61K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 6:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 1 Aug 2024 – 6 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2024 | 2.5% |
| 6 Aug 2024 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3.3 | Yes | 20.22K |
| NOSELL | Yes | 2.52K |
| ElectionInsider | Yes | 1.5K |
| Mart02 | Yes | 1.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between July 30 and August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-by-monday
| Ill-Logo | Yes | 564 |
| Adventurous-Cosset | Yes | 38.46 |
| unndo | Yes | 2 |
| story | Yes | 1.25 |
| exactprofit | Yes | 0.69 |
| mushrumguy | Yes | 0.63 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
