Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved No on 11 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 56.5%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 13 Jun 2024. Before it settled, the high was 57% on 15 Jun 2024 and the low 39.5% on 14 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 57% on 15 Jun 2024. $18.65K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 12, 12:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 13 Jun 2024 – 11 Jul 2024, chart shows 35%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jun 2024 | 52.5% |
| 11 Jul 2024 | 43.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lazam | Yes | 15.93 |
| TickleMaster | Yes | 10.91 |
| e17a9ff | Yes | 5 |
| Bronze-Chamber | Yes | 2.22 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from May to June 2024. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.0 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from May to June 2024 and “No“ otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS June 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on July 11, 2024, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. ---- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.1%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.0%, this market will resolve to “No”).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-inflation-0pt0-from-may-to-june-2024
| baggot | Yes | 0.07 |
| Skip-Earthwax | Yes | 0.03 |
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