- What is the “US forces in Iran before August?” market asking?
- It asks whether the following will happen: US forces in Iran before August? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
- What do the Yes and No prices mean?
- At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
- When does this market close?
- Trading is scheduled to close on Jul 31, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
- How does this market resolve?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point between June 18, 2025, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?
- 24h volume ($399.6K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
- Who holds the biggest positions in this market?
