Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 19 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 13.5% on 19 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.8 points down, to 3.6% on 24 Jun 2025. $399.6K traded over the market's life.
239 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 4:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 19 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2025 | 13.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| choosinglosses | Yes | 5.66K |
| ppp666 | Yes | 5.1K |
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Caliber | Yes | 4.91K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point between June 18, 2025, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-in-iran-before-august
| Yes |
| 4.24K |
| natski88 | Yes | 3.39K |
| Magenilan | Yes | 2.07K |
| vaso28 | Yes | 1.76K |
| johanvb | Yes | 1.67K |
| austrian | Yes | 1.47K |
| SurioMrMuscl | Yes | 1.38K |
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