Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 12 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 12 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 11.5% on 12 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 6.5% on 13 Jan 2026. $571.8K traded over the market's life.
180 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 10:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 12 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2026 | 11.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mastree | Yes | 32.33K |
| Godofiran | Yes | 23.39K |
| Aware-Sanity | Yes | 9.74K |
| Solid-Intestine | Yes | 6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
New to prediction markets?
| davidvoops | Yes | 5.67K |
| Puzzling-Dimple | Yes | 2.46K |
| Open-Stability | Yes | 2.24K |
| supergarbageman01 | Yes | 1.79K |
| Complete-Grey | Yes | 1.72K |
| hollyber | Yes | 1.46K |
