Analytics
Yes is at 0.9%, down 7.1 points from 8% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 339 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 26 Oct 2026 (17 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 8% on 6 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.7%; a month before, 2.1%.
$19.95K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.91K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 338 trades, $428.96 bought Yes and $4.34K bought No.
The largest Yes position is MrFate with 953 shares; the largest No position is CB-Compound with 1K. Ten wallets hold 60.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 11:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 339 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 26 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 8.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CB-Compound | No | 1K |
| MrFate | Yes | 952.78 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 811.12 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027
| GTOrski1 |
| No |
| 795.76 |
| frogzu | Yes | 650.92 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 301.12 |
| CeroXu | No | 208.33 |
| WallaceWW | No | 204.29 |
| edgeguy | No | 200 |
| freemath | No | 199.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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