Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 3.9% on 11 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 114 daily closes on record from 11 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 4% on 12 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Dec 2025. $351.18K traded over the market's life.
97 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 114 points, 11 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2025 | 3.9% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Anjun | Yes | 2.41K |
| varsityalex1 | Yes | 2.24K |
| Steel-Fly | Yes | 1.67K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war. Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-in-2025
| Yes |
| 1.36K |
| YisusTuLove | Yes | 1.32K |
| conso | Yes | 1K |
| DarthTyranus | Yes | 1K |
| Indigo Orbit 9EEE | Yes | 924.91 |
| betyourewrong | Yes | 833.33 |
| ehkluo | Yes | 689.66 |
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