Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 0%; no result has been reported.
Across the 81 daily closes on record from 16 Dec 2025 to 5 Mar 2026, the highest close was 11.3% on 26 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3.6% on 22 Dec 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.3%; a month before, 7.8%.
$119.34K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is 0xD3Gen with 8.7K shares; the largest No position is Strict-Dispatch with 159. Ten wallets hold 66.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 4:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 16 Dec 2025 – 5 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2025 | 4.5% |
| 5 Mar 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xD3Gen | Yes | 8.66K |
| k4l4skn1k0v | Yes | 2.79K |
| MrSpaghetto | Yes | 1.71K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming the US is in a civil war. Note: Media reports that use the phrase "civil war" metaphorically will not count. Only a wide consensus of reporting that the US has entered a literal civil war will qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 1.6K |
| Naughty-Aquifer | Yes | 1.57K |
| tferland | Yes | 1K |
| Dummytic | Yes | 824.91 |
| Neon Signal DDEB | Yes | 824.47 |
| Fancy-Gram | Yes | 620.44 |
| Lan-U | Yes | 593.59 |
