US bank failure by June 30?

Resolved

Yes, settled May 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$22.7K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

May 2, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 2 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 2 May 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.8% on 2 May 2026 and the lowest 23% on 27 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 75 points up, to 99.8% on 2 May 2026. $22.72K traded over the market's life.

21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 2, 11:26 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 2 May 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Apr 2026	50.0%
2 May 2026	99.8%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
LukeGamma	No	999.99
zhaoxin.trade.	No	303.95
Fain	No	90.04
Besserwisser	No	50

10 of 21 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.