US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

economyResolved

Yes, settled Sep 26, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$4.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Sep 26, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 26 Sep 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 25 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 25 Aug 2026 to 26 Sep 2026, the highest close was 99.5% on 26 Sep 2026 and the lowest 34% on 20 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 99.5% on 26 Sep 2026. $4.13K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:03 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 25 Aug 2026 – 26 Sep 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Aug 2026	55.5%
26 Sep 2026	99.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.	No	119.98
nellojello	No	80
.Menthe	No	50
SOLIQUID	No	26

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.