Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 44.5%. Yes opened at 32% on 2 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 2 Jan 2025 to 18 Jan 2025, the highest close was 44.5% on 18 Jan 2025 and the lowest 32% on 2 Jan 2025. $39.91K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 2:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 2 Jan 2025 – 18 Jan 2025, chart shows 25%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2025 | 32.0% |
| 18 Jan 2025 | 44.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between December 31, 2024, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-before-july
| gondubash | No | 2.2 |
| Rotmot | No | 1.98 |
| Starkspring | No | 1.78 |
| Mandorope | No | 1.77 |
| Oldkrijnj | No | 1.67 |
| slandersh | No | 1.62 |
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