
Resolved No on 2 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 16 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 16 May 2026 to 2 Jun 2026, the highest close was 50% on 16 May 2026 and the lowest 6% on 28 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 23% on 17 May 2026. $31.2K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 3, 6:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 16 May 2026 – 2 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | 8.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| troim | Yes | 2.39K |
| puposalbani | Yes | 1.5K |
| Kaninchen | Yes | 75 |
| Emerald Pioneer C5D8 | Yes | 71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-outside-of-the-us-by-822
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| HuckleBerryFIn | Yes | 40 |
| CorneliaPumps | Yes | 40 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 39.99 |
| Silver Lynx 3015 | Yes | 31 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 30 |
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