
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.8%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 27 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 96 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 27 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.7% on 16 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 8.5% on 28 Jun 2026. $197.1K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 6:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 96 points, 27 Jun 2026 – 1 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2026 | 13.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 1.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gods-eye | Yes | 17.06K |
| hoschi | Yes | 2.71K |
| 8dcc906a9b | Yes | 1.85K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will completely withdraw from Al Udeid Air Base between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base refers to a US directive to remove all military personnel from the base. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of The United States’ present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. An announcement of a decision to implement such a withdrawal will qualify, regardless of whether some personnel remain at the base, or whether personnel are intended to remain for a period of time prior to withdrawal. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement need not use specific terminology, provided the substance of a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base is clearly and unambiguously communicated. For example, an announcement that the United States will permanently end military operations at Al Udeid Air Base, or withdraw all troops from Qatar (necessarily including Al Udeid), would qualify; however a vague announcement that the United States will draw down its troop presence in the middle east would not. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for Donald Trump or the United States government or military; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement a complete withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of a withdrawal rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the withdrawal is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
| Yes |
| 702.75 |
| YTUTR | Yes | 383.85 |
| Wiry-Separation | Yes | 262.25 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 200 |
| itsKey | Yes | 173.83 |
| ivybaby02 | Yes | 114.31 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-announces-withdrawal-from-al-udeid-air-base-by-sep-30-20260626182408440
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