Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 29 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 29 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 45.5% on 29 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 May 2026. $153.45K traded over the market's life.
153 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 4:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 29 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2026 | 45.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rgess | Yes | 3.83K |
| Confused-Spyglass-Hygienic | Yes | 3.68K |
| Corny-Mode | Yes | 2.4K |
| Fero046 | Yes | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President. For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-announces-military-coordination-with-kurds-in-iran-by-march-31
| Satisfied-Designation | Yes | 2K |
| unsc | Yes | 1.22K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 1.22K |
| Cashis-King | Yes | 1.22K |
| Adored-Stamen | Yes | 1.02K |
| Mrcurls | Yes | 965.02 |
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