Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 26 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 161 daily closes on record from 26 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 43.5% on 26 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 29 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 18.5% on 27 Jul 2025. $66.4K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 161 points, 26 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | 43.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Hearty-Skullcap | Yes | 2.78K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| PadraigCaseySheepShit | Yes | 338.87 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States between July 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Th Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-new-trade-deals-with-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| kamarat | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 282 |
| oliman2 | Yes | 191.97 |
| Gray-Anatomy | Yes | 182.47 |
| veveles | Yes | 166.67 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 152 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 148 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
