Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 41% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 179 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 41% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 25.5% on 1 Jan 2026. $301.6K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 179 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 41.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Upset-Instruction | No | 9.02K |
| 881112 | Yes | 4.95K |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | Yes | 2.9K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31
| Unwelcome-Licensing | Yes | 2.18K |
| AltairRussia | Yes | 2.03K |
| walterw3 | Yes | 1K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 999.89 |
| tradingdecs | Yes | 504 |
| hyperplane420 | Yes | 400 |
| Occasional-Tilt | Yes | 310 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
