Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 6 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 27 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 39.5% on 27 Dec 2025. $493.72K traded over the market's life.
165 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 11:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 6 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | 27.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 881112 | Yes | 17.1K |
| jordanmichal | Yes | 3.43K |
| Suburban-Wolf | Yes | 2.49K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework. 2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials. 3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025
| Yes |
| 2.23K |
| shitok | Yes | 904.14 |
| lissartter | Yes | 722 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 645 |
| Showy-Opportunist | Yes | 642.86 |
| Aaaaaguess | Yes | 625 |
| L-F | Yes | 532.56 |
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