Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 12 points from 15.5% when the market opened on 26 Jun 2026.
Across the 115 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 16.5% on 25 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 25 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.3%; a month before, 6.2%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 16.5% on 25 Jul 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Ukraine coup attempt by...?”.
$154.79K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $57.18K, with a 3.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 440 trades, $782.07 bought Yes and $62.84K bought No; the largest was a $1.06K buy of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is SoloVad with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is justme003 with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 85.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 115 points, 26 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2026 | 15.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-coup-attempt-by-june-30
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 210.27 |
| antoo111 | Yes | 180.52 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 149.25 |
| WinterCumer | Yes | 66.55 |
| Smartik | No | 62.18 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 54.99 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 54 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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