Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 74.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2026 to 14 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 7 Oct 2026 and the lowest 25.5% on 14 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 25.5% on 14 Oct 2026. $22.22 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 15, 12:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 7 Oct 2026 – 14 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Neon Kestrel 2504 | Yes | 746.03 |
| Solar Signal DAD3 | Yes | 39.68 |
| Amber Sphinx 7AB2 | Yes | 39.68 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Aline Pereira and Smilla Sundell at Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10, scheduled for October 13, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 27, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-aliper-smisun-2026-10-13
New to prediction markets?
| Keen Oracle E30A | Yes | 39.68 |
| Solar Horizon D3F9 | Yes | 32.94 |
| Cosmic Falcon EFD5 | Yes | 12.38 |
| Jade Signal 2BC8 | Yes | 5.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
